Critical Reveiw of the Effects on Procurement in the UK Public Sector Dissertation

Critical Reveiw of the Effects on Procurement in the UK Public Sector after the Egan & Lathan Reports - Dissertation Example These transformations, both reports argued will prevent the crisis from happening again and consequently make the construction industry more resilient to future economic reversals. Investigating the current state of the construction industry as compared to the pre-Latham and Egan report era, this paper also investigated if the recommendations were fully implemented and integrated within the construction industry. A quick inquiry revealed that a Procurement Law that is congruent with both reports have been passed and is now fully implemented, comparing the law and the report it was revealed that the government has fully complied with both reports. This thesis also investigated the construction industry to determine if at all there was a cogent attempt to comply with the recommendation of the report. It was determined that there was no concerted effort to make the entire industry to systematically comply with the report. There is however indications of individual attempts of companies to comply with the report. ... Introduction After a period of serious lapse in the growth of the construction industry in the United Kingdom, the government and other stakeholders commissioned Sir Michael Latham to review the procurement and contractual arrangements in the United Kingdom (Harding, 2008). The report was published in 1994 and it has been three years short of two decades since then. In March 15, 2005 or during the time the procurement law of 2006 is being deliberated in parliament the National Audit Office published its report entitled â€Å"Improving Public Service through better construction (Comptroller and Auditor General, National Accounting Office). In it, it was established that there is still a need â€Å"for further action to improve departments’ construction performance and the scope for significant financial savings† (ibid). This paper shall synthesise and analyse secondary sources that would include government statistics to determine the current state of the construction in dustry as compared to its condition in the pre-Latham report. This paper shall also analyze the impact of the report’s recommendation with regards to procurement arrangements in the United Kingdom. The areas that will be explored are the laws that were legislated since the publication of the report. This paper would cover the procurement arrangement within the United Kingdom specifically those involving the construction industry. Influenced by the Egan and Latham reports, the United Kingdom Public Sector Procurement lists three routes that will deliver a project to completion; Private Finance Initiative, Prime Contracting and Design and Build (Office of Governement Commerce, 2007). Each of the routes mentioned will be

The education system Essay Example for Free

The education system Essay Assess the view that ethnic minority pupils are discriminated against in the education system There are currently significant differences in the educational attainment of ethnic minority pupils compared to their white peers, as shown in the statistics from Social Trends. There are many possible factors that may account for this and for the purposes of this essay I will explore the idea of discrimination against ethnic minority pupils. Some pupils may be treated differently either due to racism or inaccurate views made by the teachers which lead to labelling. The Swan Report was done in 1985 in Britain after it was felt that research should be conducted into the differing attainments of ethnic minority pupils. This report concluded that there was not much racism in Britain at that time and if there was, it may have been from resources such as books so is consequently dying out. Due to the age of the Swan Report, its findings may not be as valid today, so this would indicate that the amount of racism, if any, would have decreased dramatically. It would therefore, be fair to say that the changes in the attitudes of people in society has lead to ethnic minority pupils no longer being discriminated against. However, Coard felt that there was racism being put through the ethnocentric education, it focused on white people, so it caused racism from the teachers and peer groups. This view argues that ethnic minority pupils are being discriminated against, but I feel it is difficult to state whether this is knowingly happening. For example, there is a wide range of ethnic minority pupils from a range of backgrounds in Britain today so it would be impractical to include work that is related to all of the cultures. As we all live in England it seems natural to give slightly more attention to the history of this country. Also, an explicit criticism of Coards work would be that it is not scientific as it is only based on his views. Overall, I feel that what Coard has described is not discrimination, but he has simply looked at the education system from a negative angle. By the 1980s, Troyna and Carrington found that there was not overt racism, but covert racism. By this they meant that people were saying, Im not racist, but This indicates that at this time, people were aware that it was wrong to be racist, but they still had views against ethnic minorities. This shows that there may have been discrimination against ethnic minorities, but it was not intentional. They felt that schools needed to do Anti-Racist Education, this would involve more strategies to deal with overt racism and would completely remove any barriers that were apparent between the cultures. From this, it can be said there is very little or no discrimination against ethnic minorities as schemes have even been introduced to reduce the small amount of covert racism.

General Omar Bradley :: Essays Papers

General Omar Bradley General Omar Nelson Bradley was the first member of his 1915 West Point class to receive a star. Gen. George C. Marshall played a key role in his rapid advance, and he served one year as an assistant in the War Department under Marshall. Promoting him from lieutenant colonel to brigadier general in 1940, Marshall made Bradley head of the Infantry School, gave him a second star in 1941, and after that appointed him commanding general of the 82nd and 28th divisions. Impressed by Bradley's success as a planner, Marshall sent him to North Africa early in 1943 to be Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower's "eyes and ears." Soon Bradley commanded the U.S. Second Corps in Tunisia. As a corps commander under Gen. George Patton's 5th Army, Bradley played a key role in the conquest of Sicily in the summer of 1943. Early in preparations for the 1944 invasion of Normandy, Marshall selected Bradley to command the 1st Army, which he later directed in the D-Day landings and Normandy campaign. When Patton was sent with the 3rd Army to assist in the breakout from France several weeks later, Bradley became the 12th Army Group commander, with Gen. Courtney Hodges's 1st and Patton's 3rd armies under his command. He led this force in a rapid movement across northern France and Belgium to the German frontier. Slowed by rugged terrain and supply shortages, Bradley's forces were hard hit in the Ardennes area in mid-December. When the German advance made it necessary for him to hand over command of the American forces north of the German penetration to British field marshal Bernard Montgomery, Bradley used Patton's troops to restore his lines in the south. His reinforced force in February pushed the Germans back across the Roer and led to a seizure of a bridge across the Rhine in early March. In April Bradle y's Army Group, now consisting of the 1st, 3rd, 9th, and 15th armies, led a massive drive through central Germany to the Elbe, to link up with the Russians at Torgau on April 25th before pushing into Czechoslovakia at the end of the war. When General Eisenhower retired from his job as chief of staff in 1948, Bradley assumed the position until he became the first chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, a position made necessary by the recent unification of the armed forces. Soon involved in supporting military operations in Korea, Bradley was caught up first with getting additional forces to MacArthur and then in the controversy between the Far East commander and Washington over policy.

Alina Humanities Essay

PERFORMANCE OBJECTIVES Upon completion of the course, students should be able to accomplish the following. 1. Understand and appreciate outstanding cultural expressions of the humanistic tradition. 2. Interpret and analyze selected artistic and ideological expressions. 3. Compare and contrast selected artistic and ideological expressions. 4. Identify causal influences in the chronological development of arts and ideas. 5. Applywhattheyhavelearnedaboutonecultureorculturalexpressionwhenexamining another. 6. Demonstrate how selected artistic and ideological expressions do or do not illustrate a cultural period or a stylistic concept. 7. Defend personal opinions regarding the interpretations of selected artistic and ideological expressions. 8. Demonstrate rhetorically effective writing appropriate for the study of humanities and meeting all requirements for college level writing. ***Please advise instructor if you will be taking exams at DSS. *** CLASS PROCEDURE & OBLIGATIONS Class sessions will consist primarily of PowerPoint presentations that include representative images, texts, and audio from the humanist tradition. Students will be responsible for viewing/reading the powerpoints and/or other material prescribed for each presentation. When 1  engaging literary texts, the students must read the assigned pages before classes, be ready to pass written quizzes on the readings and be ready to discuss each respective day’s assignment. *** Using laptop computers or other electronic devices is not allowed in class. For each incident, violators will be docked ten points on the following exam. Classroom Etiquette: 1. No talking during class. Private conversation cannot and will not be tolerated. 2. No reading the newspaper, or other outside material, or doing other homework during class. 3. Due to the abuse of using computers in class in the past, I ask that you do not use a laptop for  taking notes. 4. Arriving late and leaving early are disruptive. Please be considerate of your instructor and fellow students by arriving on time. If you should need to arrive late or leave early, please notify the instructor. 5. Turn off cell phones before entering the classroom. Attendance Policy Classroom attendance supplements and enriches text materials through films, slides, lectures, and discussions. In addition, class discussions suffer without each student present, since all viewpoints in discussion are important. Class attendance and punctuality are important. TCC’s  Catalog states, â€Å"All students enrolled in the College are expected to attend all classes, since regular attendance and regular application constitute the two most significant factors that promote success in college work. Until midterm during fall, spring and summer C terms, any student absent from any class for more time than that class meets in any one week (i. e. , two classes) may be withdrawn by administrative action (AW grade). † Tardiness and/or leaving class early both disrupts the continuity of the class and reduces other students’ engagement with the material. Both, therefore, will be counted as absences.  Since late arrivals and early departures constitute class disturbances, each instance of tardiness to and early departure from this class will be counted as an absence from an entire class session. Consequently, STUDENTS WHO ARE TARDY OR WHO LEAVE EARLY — FOR ANY REASON, INCLUSIVE OF BATHROOM USAGE — ON MORE THAN A TOTAL OF FIVE OCCASIONS PRIOR TO THE WITHDRAWAL DEADLINE WILL BE SUBJECT TO ADMINISTRATIVE WITHDRAWAL. STUDENTS SHOULD ARRIVE ON TIME AND POWER OFF THEIR CELL PHONES BEFORE CLASS BEGINS. Eight absences will lower your final grade in this course one full letter grade. A student with nine absences will automatically fail the  course. There will be no distinction made between excused and unexcused absences, so plan your absences wisely. 2 STUDENTS SHOULD ARRIVE ON TIME AND POWER OFF THEIR CELL PHONES BEFORE CLASS BEGINS. OBLIGATIONS I. Exams Students will be responsible for performing well on three exams. The course will be divided into three units, and a non-cumulative examination will be administered at the conclusion of each unit. All three exams will be comprised of slide identification, multiple choice, matching, short answer, and true/false questions. Students should bring a #2 pencil on the dates of the exams. IF FOR ANY LEGITIMATE REASON A STUDENT IS UNABLE TO TAKE AN EXAM ON THE ASSIGNED DATE, HE/SHE MUST NOTIFY THE INSTRUCTOR BEFOREHAND. Otherwise, no make-up exam will be administered, and failing to take an exam will result in an â€Å"F† for the course. The key to doing well on the exams: attending class, taking notes, and studying diligently. Each exam will include 20% extra credit. II. Writing Assignments Students will be responsible for submitting a total of three essays (600-650 words each). Each one of the three essays corresponds with each one of the 3 exams, and each of the three essays  will be a response to prompts aligned with each unit/exam — that is, each of the three essay assignments must be related to the readings for each exam. Further instructions and the essays’ prompts will be posted on BlackBoard. The due dates are specified on the calendar at the conclusion of this syllabus. Note: Students must complete successfully a short grammar quiz before submitting each of the three essays. Essays may include MLA prescribed in-text citations. That is, if you quote or paraphrase from a source, you must parenthetically cite that source after the quote or paraphrase. Also, you will  need to include a Works Cited page. ***If you plagiarize, your essay will receive a zero, and your overall grade will drop to an F. Grading Each of the student’s three exams and the writing assignments will receive a letter grade: 100-90 = A; 89-80 = B; 79-70 = C; 69-54 = D; 53-0 = F. >The three exam grades will each count 30%, totaling 90 percent of the student’s final course grade; and the three essay grades total 10 percent of the final course grade. *Failure to submit an exam or essay will result in an F for the course. * 3 A student’s excellent attendance, punctuality, Discussion Board participation, and attitude  (citizenship) can count up to 10%++ â€Å"extra credit† toward the final exam grade. Conversely, a student’s poor attendance, poor punctuality, and poor citizenship/attitude (which includes talking, texting, & â€Å"acting out† in class) can affect negatively the final exam grade. Tardiness or leaving early will be counted as an absence and will therefore negate a student’s extra credit for that particular class. Academic Honesty Policy Plagiarism: Webster’s New Universal Unabridged Dictionary states: to plagiarize is â€Å"to steal or pass off ideas or words of another as one’s own†¦to use created productions without crediting  the source†¦to commit literary theft†¦to present as new and original an idea or product derived from an existing source† (p. 1371). Academic dishonesty is not accepted at Tallahassee Community College, and I will pursue and prosecute any instances of such dishonesty. ***Do not plagiarize—that is, do not use the research, ideas, or words of others as your own without giving proper credit to your source. This policy especially includes copying or paraphrasing written materials from gallery brochures, play programs, books, periodicals, encyclopedias, CD-ROMs, the Internet, or someone else’s paper. ***Do not cheat. Students who cheat or plagiarize will receive an automatic zero on the assignment and will be referred to the academic dean for expulsion from TCC. By the act of submitting written work or an exam, the student acknowledges that she/he understands the definition of academic dishonesty and is willing to accept the consequences for any violation. COURSE WEB SITE: This course has been designated â€Å"WA† (â€Å"Web Assisted†) in the schedule of classes, and the â€Å"WA† designation means: â€Å"Some use of computer online technology required. † In this regard a course web site has been established for students in this class. The purpose of the web site is to allow students access to important course materials (syllabus, writing assignment, study guides, presentation assistants, images, et cetera). The materials are intended as supplemental to the classroom experience; they should not, in other words, be viewed as substitutes for in-class presentations. Students may also use the course web site to communicate with one another by means of the â€Å"Discussion Board,† which can be found by clicking on the tab labeled â€Å"Communication. † Via the Discussion Board, students can introduce themselves to one another,  ask questions about the material covered in class, and ask questions about the course writing assignments (be careful, though, not to copy the answers of another student). Activating Your TCC E-mail Account If you have not already done so, you will need to activate your TCC e-mail account. To activate your TCC e-mail account, go to the TCC homepage at http://www. tcc. fl. edu/, click on â€Å"Online Access,† click on Student NetMail Guide†; click on â€Å"Activate your eAccount,† and follow the directions. You will be given â€Å"Student eAccount ID (or Name) and a Password (or PIN) that you need to record and store in a secure location. You will need your eAccount ID and Password to access both the course web site and your TCC e-mail account. If you have any problems, call 850-201-8535. Finding the Course Web Site 4 You may find the course web site by going to the TCC homepage at http://www. tcc. fl. edu/, clicking on â€Å"Online Access,† clicking on â€Å"Blackboard. † After logging in with your username and password, the next screen should display the name of the course in which you are enrolled. LIST OF CLAST SKILLS TAUGHT OR REINFORCED: The State of Florida requires each student to demonstrate proficiency in certain College Level Academic Skills (CLAST). The students of HUM 2210 will have the opportunity to practice and develop their reading and writing skills. As for their reading, students will engage their Literal and Critical Comprehension Skills; and, as for their writing, students will engage their English Language Skills: Content, Organization, and Grammar/Mechanics (i. e. , appropriate word usage, syntax, spelling, punctuation). Advising The Associate of Arts degree offered through TCC requires the completion of six credit hours in humanities with a grade of â€Å"C† or better. There are three different tracks through which those six hours may be obtained. The common track runs through both HUM 2210 and HUM 2230, Humanities of the World I and II. If students pass HUM 2210, then, to fulfill the humanities requirement, they must also pass HUM 2230 (and vice versa). Another track runs through HUM 2740 and 2741, Humanities Abroad I and II. If students pass HUM 2740, then, to fulfill the humanities requirement, they must also pass HUM 2741. The third track offers two humanities courses from four different categories. Those categories include courses relating to (1) Art History, (2) Literature, (3) Music, and (4) Philosophy and Religion. For the third track students  must pass two courses, and the two courses must fall into two different categories. Students cannot fulfill the humanities requirement by completing courses in different tracks. If, for example, students pass HUM 2210 and then pass REL 2300 (World Religions), they have not fulfilled the humanities requirement. ACADEMIC ALERT! Students enrolled in the same college-prep or college-level course for the third time shall pay one-hundred percent of the full cost of instruction (which is the equivalent of fees paid by out-of-state residents) except in approved cases of documented extenuating circumstances. Students may not withdraw on the third attempt and will receive a grade in courses taken the third time. An appeal to take a college-level course for the fourth time may be allowed based on academic goals. The appeal process is executed through the Counseling Department. If a fourth attempt is granted, a student will not be permitted to withdraw and will receive a grade for the course. The counting of attempts began in the fall of 1997 and includes only those attempts at the Florida college where one is currently enrolled. Take your course work seriously. Consult with your academic advisor, make an educational  plan, attend class, and take advantage of the skills’ labs available to you. * * * PRESENTATION TOPICS AND RECOMMENDED READING 5 Unit I: The Earliest Traces of Culture Ancient African Egyptian Culture Ancient Mesopotamian and Hebrew Culture Ancient Hindu and Buddhist Cultures Unit II: Ancient Greek Culture Ancient Roman Culture Early Christian and Byzantine Culture Unit III: Islamic Culture Japanese Culture: chs. 16, 23 (if time permits) Medieval European Culture Renaissance European Culture IMPORTANT DATES Classes Begin Holidays: Labor Day Veterans Day Thanksgiving Break Monday, August 25 Monday, September 01  Tuesday, November 11 Wednesday-Friday, November 26-28 Last day to cancel registration/drop courses and receive a refund; last day to change from credit to audit or audit to credit Last day to withdraw from a course(s); last day instructors may assign AW Friday, August 29 Monday, November 03 1st Exam 1st Essay due Sept. 18 (Slide ID) Sept. 23 (Multiple Choice, etc. ) Sept. 16 2nd Exam 2nd Essay Due Oct. 21 (Slide ID) Oct. 23 (Multiple Choice, etc. ) Oct 28 Last Day of Classes Friday, December 05 Final Exam 3rd Essay Due TBA Day of the Final Exam TBA Final Exam: TBA Twelve Ways to make sure You Pass Your College Classes  6 1. Study the text, lecture material, or additional assigned recommended reading. Superficially scanning the reading the night before the exam â€Å"doesn’t cut it. † 2. Observe due dates. Late work, no matter what the excuse, will be downgraded or not accepted. 3. Do not urge the instructor to â€Å"cut you some slack† or â€Å"give you a break. † If he or she did that for someone else and not you, what would your reaction be? 4. Attend class. While you may think class is boring, the teacher might just provide some insights that will help you better understand the content of the course. 5. Come to class on time. If you really want to get on the wrong side of the instructor, just make tardiness a habit. 6. Do not play with your cell phone, iPod, or other electronic device in class. Unless you have childcare problems or are a first-responder, these actions tell the instructor that something else is more important than what is being taught. 7. Do not copy from Wikipedia, a Google search, or someone else’s work without proper citations. Teachers usually can identify plagiarism and material that is not yours. 8. Do not sleep in class. We know that school interferes with your social life, but do not make it so obvious! 9. Do not try to con the teacher. Telling an instructor that this is the last course you need to graduate or transfer will not earn you any leniency. 10. Do not tell the teacher that this class is the only one with which you are struggling and you have â€Å"A’s and B’s† in all other classes. Don’t give the impression that your other teachers are too easy. 11. Do not tell the teacher that you must have a good grade or you will lose your eligibility for sports, scholarship, or grant; lose your G. I. Bill; or be on academic probation. 12. Take your course work seriously. Try your best to learn.

Ip Camera

Basic – analog and digital Branded ones – Bosch, AXIS, Mobotix Biggest Taiwan brand Vivotek Check out AXIS and Mobotix trend in each country. Bosch is following up with AXIS and Mobotix. Bosch website is good in technical. Vivotek is good in hardware. Bosch and Airlive software are good. Analog camera has BNC connector (round connector). Can convert analog to digital? Yes is possible. Cost is 25 USD to 250USD. Can convert to BNC to RJ45 or even to Fibre. Lens affect the viewing angle from 4 MM, 6MM, 8MM, 16MM. Manufacturer is Sharp and Sony. Lens also got differentiate into CMOS and optical lens. Optical lens consume more bandwidth.AXIS has the best CMOS lens and they can make it closer to optical lens. MTBF- Mean time before failures. Our AP is 200,000HRS which is quite safe. Camera also have MTBF timing. Bosch have best datasheet. Digital cameras is using RJ45, LAN cable. Digital have both indoor and outdoor. DVR for analog have BNC connector. 16 holes. 1 hole 1 chann el. DVR is for digital camera. DVR is mostly for soho use up to 16 channels or even 32 channels = 32 digital cameras. 1 camera 1 ip address. DVR – we have 1 setup box and 1 harddisk and few buttons for control. Older form of DVR is onsite recording. 2nd generation is with Lan cables so is going via IP.Can record offsite. PTZ cameras – Pan Tilt Zoom.. which the lens is optical. NVR – network video recording is like a NAS, up to dual CPU power with single GIGBABIT port for connecting high resolution cameras for processing. Can connect up to 254 cameras to 1 NVR (255 ip address for Class C subnet mask). Codec is required for converting the recording for onsite. H. 264 and MPEG file version. For future, people are doing bigger and larger and scalable NVR to increase the number of cameras. Raid is now up to 0 and 1. Next year will be raid 5 and raid 6. inside have 4 CPU inside 4U CPU rack with 2 harddisk with redundant power. Software –Questions to ask. 1) Wha t is the FRAME per second? FPS. Recording for IP camera is 29FPS is good (for wired). Wireless camera is normally 3 to 5 FPS for viewing. Recording is still 29FPS for wireless. 2) Resolutions. 320 x 320, 480 x 320, 640 x 480, 1024 x 768 etc. higher resolution will consume higher bandwidth. For analog is defined as lines. Eg HD TV has 1080 lines. 3)CODEC file type. For night vision is based on lux. 0. 5 LUX is able to see already. 1 LUX – 40W of light bulbs. IP cameras do not take standard POE but it take POE+. AXIS – strong at indoor Mobotix – strong at outdoor Vivotek – Outdoor and indoor Bosch – Outdoor

Trolley Crane Design Essay Example

Trolley Crane Design Essay Example Trolley Crane Design Paper Trolley Crane Design Paper Introduction For this project, the aim was to research different geared trolley cranes and come up with a brief outline/ design which would meet some specific design limitations. The trolley crane that we had to come up with was meant to be designed to lift and carry a load of 1. 5 tones along I-beam of 4 meters long. The research that we did was mainly on existing trolley cranes and the configurations of these cranes which allowed us to familiarize ourselves with what the crane does and how It works. The way that the crane operates Is by having a person pull a chain. This chain Is connected to a drive shaft which In turn Is connected too pylon and two wheels. These wheels allow the crane to move horizontally along the I-beam whilst sustaining a load. For our crane design, as mentioned above, the I-beam must be able to support the load of 1. 5 tones without failing under the load and the beam length must be 4 meters long. The trolley crane must also be manually operated with one person pulling the chain to operate it. The way that we can ensure that the trolley crane and I-beam will support the specified load is by using some of the basic beam bending theory in strength of trials and by using different tolerance and bearing data from previous notes. 2. 0. Research As a group we researched many trolley cranes currently on the market, this gave us an idea of the competition for our trolley crane and helped clarify the workings of such mechanisms. (See appendix) 3. 0. Product Design Specification 3. 1. Design Brief The alma of this project, is through the researching of other products, Is to produce a design for a geared trolley crane which fits the given specification for our group. 3. 2. Performance The trolley crane should be capable of sustaining a load of 1. tones with a safety factor of 20%. Should run along a 4 meter I-beam. Trolley crane should be operated and manually moved via a chain/gear system. The weight of the trolley must provide stability along the selected I-beam. The Trolley should be removable from the beam for maintenance and re- installation. 3. 3. Environment The trolley will be available to a global market. Being used in a diverse environment, the trolley crane will be subject to a humid/ wet environment and as such will need to be treated in order to resist corrosion. The trolley will be stored in suppliers warehouses before sales. . 4. Product life span The product will be on the market for 7 years. Spare parts will be available for a further 3 years 3. 5. Life in service Should withstand an operating period of 1 hrs uninterrupted use per day for 3. 5 years. Life in service should be assessed against the criteria outlined in the Performance and Environment categories. . 6. Shelf life The product may be stored on-site for up to 2 weeks before being dispatched. Distributor may additionally store the product for several months. 3. 7. Target costs The product should have an end-user cost of IEEE within Britain. Cost of manufacture should not exceed 50% of this cost. The cost of packaging and shipping should be no more than 15% of the manufacturing cost. 3. 8. Quantity Dependent on market demand 3. 9. Maintenance To be maintenance free except for light lubrication once a month and a recommended service every two years. Parts requiring lubrication should be accessible within 10 minutes without the use of special tools or equipment. All fasteners used should comply with BASSES. Spares should be available for 3 and a half years after the product is replaced with a new model. No special tools should be required for maintenance. . 10. Marketing The trolley crane should be used in competition with other models. Some markets which will use the trolley crane are:- small car garages, storage warehouses, workshops etc. The trolley should be light and therefore be able to be moved easily by no less tan two people. It should allow for operation by one man. 3. 11. Packaging The trolley packaging and transportation should be reasonably inexpensive. No more than 5% of the total cost. 3. 12. Size and Weight Restrictions Length of the beam should be no more than 4 meters long. Width and Height to be no more than mm Weight should be no more than keg. Height should be no more than mm 3. 13. Manufacturing process Bearings, pin/bolt and chain will be bought in from a supplier. The wheels and the pinion will be CNN machined using the milling process.

Upgrade Your Essay Writing Process Say NO to Multitasking

Upgrade Your Essay Writing Process Say NO to Multitasking Upgrade Your Essay Writing Process: Say NO to Multitasking If you want to improve your essay writing process, you should avoid multitasking. This is an important thing to stress because what most people think of multitasking is incorrect. First of all, there is no such thing as multi-tasking. Instead, there is task switching. Your mind is not able to focus all of its attention on two things at once. What it can do instead is switch faster and faster between the two or more tasks. This is an important distinction because it means that if you are trying to do two things at once, your mind will constantly switch between the two and this means time wasted during the switch. If you choose, instead, to focus on just one thing at a time until that one task is done, you can save time and avoid the need to switch tasks. In fact, studies indicate that your IQ drops by 15 points when you are trying to task switch, because it reduces the brain power you can apply to any given task. That being said, in order to improve the process by which you produce your top notch essays, you should cover all of the key components in a linear fashion, one after the other: Develop Your Thesis Your thesis is the main idea warming argument that you are presenting. It must encapsulate your response to the prompt. To strongly express your overall response to whatever the main question is, you want to avoid having a thesis statement which is far too simplistic. Your goal here is to show that you actually put thought into the complexities behind your prompt. Remember too that the thesis serves as the backbone for your writing assignment and therefore it must be stated within the introduction. It is also the one idea which is referred to multiple times throughout the remainder of your content and all of the work you complete in the remainder of your content is designed to demonstrate how you prove your thesis. Write Your Introduction The introduction is where you not only introduce your thesis but when you open up your discussion. You want to indicate to the reader how the question or the prompt is going to be answered and engage the reader. Create the Main Body When you write the main body of your writing, you want to make sure that each new point has its own paragraph. You should use words or phrases at the onset of every paragraph to indicate to the reader how it relates to the content you presented previously such as nevertheless, in addition, or however. You should start each of your body paragraphs with a topic sentence which clearly links it to the remainder of your written content. Make a Conclusion When you sit down to write your conclusion you want to summarize the key ideas and demonstrate how the information you presented proves your thesis. You should finish with a thought-provoking or interesting comment. Overall, trying to multitask is not going to help you get anything done faster. What will help is doing things in a proper order and sticking to that order whenever you are working. Essay writing can be improved with organization and focus. At you can also get professional essay writing help on any topic.

The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962

The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 The Cuban Missile Crisis was a tense 13-day-long (October 16-28, 1962) confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union triggered by America’s discovery of nuclear-capable Soviet ballistic missile deployment in Cuba. With Russian long-range nuclear missiles just 90 miles off the shore of Florida, the crisis pushed the limits of atomic diplomacy and is generally considered the closest the Cold War came to escalating into a full-scale nuclear war. Spiced with open and secret communication and strategic miscommunication between the two sides, the Cuban Missile Crisis was unique in the fact that it took place mainly in the White House and the Soviet Kremlin, with little or no foreign policy input from either the U.S. Congress or the legislative arm of the Soviet government, the Supreme Soviet. Events Leading to the Crisis In April 1961, the U.S. government backed a group of Cuban exiles in an armed attempt to overthrow communist Cuban dictator Fidel Castro. The infamous assault, known as the Bay of Pigs invasion, failed miserably, became a foreign policy black eye for President John F. Kennedy, and only widened the growing Cold War diplomatic gap between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Still smarting from the Bay of Pigs failure, the Kennedy administration in the spring of 1962 planned Operation Mongoose, a complex set of operations orchestrated by the CIA and Department of Defense, again intended to remove Castro from power. While some of the non-military actions of Operation Mongoose were conducted during 1962, the Castro regime remained solidly in place. In July 1962, Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev, in response to the Bay of Pigs and the presence of American Jupiter ballistic missiles Turkey, secretly agreed with Fidel Castro to place Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba in order to prevent the United States from attempting future invasions of the island. The Crisis Begins as Soviet Missiles Detected In August of 1962, routine U.S. surveillance flights began showing a build-up of Soviet-made conventional weapons on Cuba, including Soviet IL–28 bombers capable of carrying nuclear bombs. A U.S. patrol plane flies over a Soviet freighter during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. Getty Images Staff On September 4, 1962, President Kennedy publicly warned the Cuban and Soviet governments to cease the stockpiling of offensive weapons on Cuba. However, photographs from a U.S. U–2 high-altitude aircraft on October 14 clearly showed sites for the storage and launch of medium- and intermediate-range ballistic nuclear missiles (MRBMs and IRBMs) being built in Cuba. These missiles allowed the Soviets to effectively target the majority of the continental United States. On October 15, 1962, the pictures from the U-2 flights were delivered to the White House and within hours the Cuban Missile crisis was underway. The Cuban ‘Blockade’ or ‘Quarantine’ Strategy In the White House, President Kennedy huddled with his closest advisers to plan a response to the Soviet’s actions. Kennedy’s more hawkish advisers – led by the Joint Chiefs of Staff argued for an immediate military response including air strikes to destroy the missiles before they could be armed and made ready for launch, followed by a full-scale military invasion of Cuba. At the other end, some of Kennedy’s advisers favored a purely diplomatic response including strongly-worded warnings to Castro and Khrushchev they hoped would result in the supervised removal of the Soviet missiles and dismantling of the launch sites. Kennedy, however, chose to take a course in the middle. His Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara had suggested a naval blockade of Cuba as a restrained military action. However, in delicate diplomacy, every word matters, and the word â€Å"blockade† was a problem. In international law, a â€Å"blockade† is considered an act of war. So, on October 22, Kennedy ordered the U.S. Navy to establish and enforce a strict naval â€Å"quarantine† of Cuba. The same day, President Kennedy sent a letter to Soviet premier Khrushchev making it clear that further delivery of offensive weapons to Cuba would not be allowed, and that the Soviet missile bases already under construction or completed should be dismantled and all weapons returned to the Soviet Union. Kennedy Informs the American People Early in the evening of October 22, President Kennedy appeared live across all U.S. television networks to inform the nation of the Soviet nuclear threat developing just 90 miles from American shores. In his televised address, Kennedy personally condemned Khrushchev for the â€Å"clandestine, reckless and provocative threat to world peace† and warned that the United States was prepared to retaliate in kind should any Soviet missiles be launched. â€Å"It shall be the policy of this nation to regard any nuclear missile launched from Cuba against any nation in the Western Hemisphere as an attack by the Soviet Union on the United States, requiring a full retaliatory response upon the Soviet Union,† stated President Kennedy. Kennedy went on to explain his administration’s plan for dealing with the crisis through the naval quarantine. â€Å"To halt this offensive buildup, a strict quarantine on all offensive military equipment under shipment to Cuba is being initiated,† he said. â€Å"All ships of any kind bound for Cuba, from whatever nation or port, will, if found to contain cargoes of offensive weapons, be turned back.† Kennedy also stressed that the U.S. quarantine would not prevent food and other humanitarian â€Å"necessities of life† from reaching the Cuban people, â€Å"as the Soviets attempted to do in their Berlin blockade of 1948.† Mere hours before Kennedy’s address, the Joint Chiefs of Staff had placed all U.S. military forces on DEFCON 3 status, under which the Air Force stood ready to launch retaliatory attacks within 15 minutes. Khrushchev’s Response Raises Tensions At 10:52 pm EDT, on October 24, President Kennedy received a telegram from Khrushchev, in which the Soviet Premier stated, â€Å"if you [Kennedy] weigh the present situation with a cool head without giving way to passion, you will understand that the Soviet Union cannot afford not to decline the despotic demands of the USA.† In the same telegram, Khrushchev stated that he had ordered Soviet ships sailing for Cuba to ignore the U.S. naval â€Å"blockade,† which the Kremlin considered to be â€Å"an act of aggression.† During October 24 and 25, despite Khrushchev’s message, some ships bound for Cuba turned back from the U.S. quarantine line. Other ships were stopped and searched by U.S. naval forces but were found not to contain offensive weapons and allowed to sail on for Cuba. However, the situation was actually growing more desperate as U.S. reconnaissance flights over Cuba indicated that work on the Soviet missile sites was continuing, with several nearing completion. US Forces Go to DEFCON 2 In light of the latest U-2 photos, and with no peaceful end to the crisis in sight, the Joint Chiefs of Staff placed U.S. forces at readiness level DEFCON 2; an indication that war involving the Strategic Air Command (SAC) was imminent. During the DEFCON 2 period, about 180 of SAC’s more than 1,400 long-range nuclear bombers remained on airborne alert and some 145 U.S. intercontinental ballistic missiles were placed on ready status, some aimed at Cuba, some at Moscow. On the morning of October 26, President Kennedy told his advisers that while he intended to allow the naval quarantine and diplomatic efforts more time to work, he feared that removing the Soviet missiles from Cuba would ultimately require a direct military attack. As America held its collective breath, the risky art of atomic diplomacy faced its greatest challenge. Khrushchev Blinks First On the afternoon of October 26, the Kremlin appeared to soften its stance. ABC News correspondent John Scali informed the White House that a â€Å"Soviet agent† had personally suggested to him that Khrushchev might order the missiles removed from Cuba if President Kennedy personally promised not to invade the island. While the White House was unable to confirm the validity of Scali’s â€Å"back channel† Soviet diplomatic offer, President Kennedy received an eerily similar message from Khrushchev himself on the evening of October 26. In an uncharacteristically long, personal and emotional note, Khrushchev expressed a desire to avoid the horrors of a nuclear holocaust. â€Å"If there is no intention,† he wrote, â€Å"to doom the world to the catastrophe of thermonuclear war, then let us not only relax the forces pulling on the ends of the rope, let us take measures to untie that knot. We are ready for this.† President Kennedy decided not to respond to Khrushchev at the time.   Out of the Frying Pan, but Into the Fire However, the next day, October 27, the White House learned that Khrushchev was not exactly that â€Å"ready† to end the crisis. In a second message to Kennedy, Khrushchev emphatically demanded that any deal to remove Soviet missiles from Cuba had to include the removal of U.S. Jupiter missiles from Turkey. Once again, Kennedy chose not to respond. Later the same day, the crisis deepened when a U.S. U–2 reconnaissance jet was shot down by a surface-to-air (SAM) missile launched from Cuba. The U-2 pilot, U.S. Air Force Major Rudolf Anderson Jr., died in the crash. Khrushchev claimed that the Major Anderson’s plane had been shot down by the â€Å"Cuban military† on orders issued by Fidel Castro’s brother Raul. While President Kennedy had previously stated he would retaliate against Cuban SAM sites if they fired on U.S. planes, he decided not to do so unless there were further incidents. While continuing to search for a diplomatic resolution, Kennedy and his advisors began planning an attack on Cuba to be carried out as soon as possible in order to prevent more nuclear missile sites from becoming operational. As this point, President Kennedy still had not responded to either of Khrushchev’s messages. Just in Time, a Secret Agreement In a risky move, President Kennedy decided to respond to Khrushchev’s first less demanding message and ignore the second one. Kennedy’s response to Khrushchev suggested a plan for the removal of Soviet missiles from Cuba to be overseen by the United Nations, in return for assurances that the United States would not invade Cuba. Kennedy, however, made no mention of the U.S. missiles in Turkey. Even as President Kennedy was responding to Khrushchev, his younger brother, Attorney General Robert Kennedy, was secretly meeting with Soviet Ambassador to the United States, Anatoly Dobrynin. In their October 27 meeting, Attorney General Kennedy told Dobrynin that the United States had been planning to remove its missiles from Turkey and would proceed to do so, but that this move could not be made public in any agreement ending the Cuban missile crisis. Dobrynin related the details of his meeting with Attorney General Kennedy to the Kremlin and on the morning of October 28, 1962, Khrushchev publicly stated that all Soviet missiles would be dismantled and removed from Cuba. While the missile crisis was essentially over, the U.S. naval quarantine continued until November 20, 1962, when the Soviets agreed to remove their IL–28 bombers from Cuba. Interestingly, the U.S. Jupiter missiles were not removed from Turkey until April 1963. The Legacy of the Missile Crisis As the defining and most desperate event of the Cold War, the Cuban Missile Crisis helped to improve the world’s negative opinion of the United States after its failed Bay of Pigs invasion and strengthened President Kennedy’s overall image at home and abroad. In addition, the secretive and dangerously confusing nature of vital communications between the two superpowers as the world teetered on the brink of nuclear war resulted in the installation of the so-called â€Å"Hotline† direct telephone link between the White House and the Kremlin. Today, the â€Å"Hotline† still exists in the form of a secure computer link over which messages between the White House and Moscow are exchanged by email. Finally and most importantly, realizing they had brought the world to the brink of Armageddon, the two superpowers began to consider scenarios for ending the nuclear arms race and began working toward a permanent nuclear Test Ban Treaty.

Maritime Policy Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3000 words - 1

Maritime Policy - Essay Example According to the International Transport Workers Federation (ITF), flags of convenience can be defined as: ‘where beneficial ownership and control of a vessel is found to lay elsewhere than in the country of the flag the vessel is flying’ (ITF, 2007, Pg.1). There are two main modes of registering shipping vessels: closed and open registers. Closed registers are the conventional form whereby the ship owners and the majority of crew emanate from the registering country. Open registers or ‘flags of convenience’ are however those registrations, which are open to any nationality subject to the registering country’s regulations that are often very relaxed to attract as many ship-owners as possible. Open registers are further subdivided into two more categories: Open National Registers and Open International Registers. Under Open National Registers, the ships are obliged to follow the trading regulations of the flag-state encompassing employment and tax guidelines. In Open International Registers, the ships are less stringently regulated enjoying tax exemptions on their profits, easy employment terms for their international crews, lax company regulations and relaxed safety standard enforcement (O’Keefe, 2002, p. 4). Although flag states are required to ensure that ships registered in their domain follow the requisite international laws in addition to administrative control, technical and social issues, however most of those licensing the flag of convenience (FOC) rarely bother to monitor the operations of the vessels. The United Nations has blamed these states for exacerbating marine accidents and compromising maritime security and safety (Gianni, 2008). According to the United Nations Open-ended Informal Consultative Process on Oceans and the Law of the Sea (UNICPOLOS) in Gianni (2008), ‘many shipping accidents and resulting loss of life and marine pollution are not the result of

JP Morgan's scope of global operations, location of major foreign Research Paper

JP Morgan's scope of global operations, location of major foreign subsidiaries , their activities, and share in global revenues - Research Paper Example nd Chase brands, the bank has gained millions of customers across the worlds’ most prominent institutional, corporate and government clients (Oshri, et.al p.76). The firm has made an oversea priority by expanding its operations globally. JPMorgan Chase gets almost quarter of its revenue from the foreign operations by having branches outside the United States. The company focuses on mainly in West Europe as it main target for international operation by investing in banking and treasury services (Mergent Industrial Manual, p.167). Although the company has faced major competition from big banks such as HSBC and Standard Chartered that has toeholds in emerging markets, it subsidiaries are still performing good. For example, the Citigroup has been rank to derive almost 60 percent of its revenue from overseas market and has also recorded good performance in China and India for decades (Loosvelt, p.34). The bank had been laying the groundwork for international expansion for sometimes and its now planning to open more branches in China, Russia and India. The bank assigned two top lieutenants to explore out the potential consumer overseas (Kumar, p.167). The bank created a network of global adviser that included Tony Blair the former British prime minister and established a partnership with buyout firm to hunt for overseas acquisitions. Due to the global credit crisis, the plans were postponed but the top executives are committed to bolstering the bank’s overseas business. The market plans to focus on a dozen of emerging markets that includes Brazil, Russia, India, and China as well as places like Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and parts of Africa (Nelsons Directory of Investment Research, p.178). The company has  set several strategies  that have increased the bank’s international portfolio. For instance, the company has purchased trading units from the Royal Bank of Scotland. The company has greater plans to buy one of the Brazilian asset management firm known as

Youth decision for military careers Dissertation

Youth decision for military careers - Dissertation Example This work highlights the importance of the military as an option for America's youth in relation to improved education, financial stability, and as a method of personal goal-attainment. Statistically, there are alarming groups of adolescents who are exposed to gang-related activities and drug abuse that have no significant medium in which to escape negative environments. For these demographic groups, the military is not only a substantial option, but might even by their ONLY method to achieve a better style of living. Today's military is geared toward relationship-building, career accomplishment, and helps to instill methods of teamwork that benefit the teenager in the short-term, but also teaches life enhancement techniques that carry well into adulthood. With the rising cost of university education, some parents and children might be willing to explore a military enlistment as a recognizable outlet for an alternative to providing quality career education.The branches of the United States military are actively working to increase recruitment among young adults at the high school level, however, there is a concerning disconnect. With the current world events and social attitude towards the military and war against terrorism, the somewhat negative perceptions carry over towards recruitment. Much the same as other historical wars, the war on terrorism will eventually end, but the need for high quality recruits will not.

The Importance of Learning Language Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

The Importance of Learning Language - Essay Example For tourists and travelers, skill in the language helps to communicate and learn new things about the countries. Indeed, when I had come from Somalia at the age of six years, I had no knowledge of the English language. The supplementary classes in English had greatly helped me to acclimatize and become comfortable in the new environment. Its proficiency not only helped me to become part of mainstream society but also facilitated in an acquisition of academic and professional qualifications.My professional degree in Pharmaceutical Science was made possible only because of my expertise in the English language. I want to teach English to foreign travelers and students. Though constructively employed in the healthcare industry since 2007, I feel the need to share my experience and make communication easier for people whose mother tongue is not English. CELTA or Certificate in Teaching English to Speakers of Other Language is initial teaching qualification for people with little or no prior teaching experience.I have been volunteering at the community center where I help ESOL teacher with her class. I really enjoy helping her in teaching adults.It has revealed my natural talent for teaching as I am easily able to connect with people from diverse background. As a certified CELTA teacher, I would be able to help more people, especially travelers and foreign tourists, to overcome their language barrier and enjoy different culture with better understanding. I, therefore, believe that CELTA would help me to achieve my broader goals and objectives of life.

Frequency Distribution Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Frequency Distribution - Assignment Example A project needs to be measureable and therefore frequency distribution helps in assessing the frequency distribution. In the process of measuring the work output of different people we could make use of mean and correlation to get the right figures (Meredith,  2011). Frequency distributions allows for measuring of specific results for different people within a project. We could use of means and correlation analysis for the purposes of analysing the output of different employees in a company. Many projects are planned with timetables in the analysis of frequency distributions. As a result, frequency distribution allows for the analysis of time taken by different employees in undertaking their jobs even in cases of people undertaking the same job (Meredith,  2011). Project management involves undertaking various jobs and duties in the process of accomplishing certain tasks that are relevant and therefore, we could make use of frequency distributions. Graphs and tables show disparity to detail on different measures undertaken by different employees

The Importance of Learning Language Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

The Importance of Learning Language - Essay Example For tourists and travelers, skill in the language helps to communicate and learn new things about the countries. Indeed, when I had come from Somalia at the age of six years, I had no knowledge of the English language. The supplementary classes in English had greatly helped me to acclimatize and become comfortable in the new environment. Its proficiency not only helped me to become part of mainstream society but also facilitated in an acquisition of academic and professional qualifications.My professional degree in Pharmaceutical Science was made possible only because of my expertise in the English language. I want to teach English to foreign travelers and students. Though constructively employed in the healthcare industry since 2007, I feel the need to share my experience and make communication easier for people whose mother tongue is not English. CELTA or Certificate in Teaching English to Speakers of Other Language is initial teaching qualification for people with little or no prior teaching experience.I have been volunteering at the community center where I help ESOL teacher with her class. I really enjoy helping her in teaching adults.It has revealed my natural talent for teaching as I am easily able to connect with people from diverse background. As a certified CELTA teacher, I would be able to help more people, especially travelers and foreign tourists, to overcome their language barrier and enjoy different culture with better understanding. I, therefore, believe that CELTA would help me to achieve my broader goals and objectives of life.

Business management work Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Business management work - Essay Example Economic recessions and periods of growth are noticeable and instantaneous demonstration of change, which have a direct consequence on the experience of employees, households as well as work organizations, and would be drawn upon in any elucidation of actual events. Though, fluctuations in the economy, significant though they are, have to be renowned from fundamental trends which might cause pressures towards a more basic reshaping of social institutions. Here we would categorize a series of associated developments which have frequently been discussed under the general rubric of a supposed transition from 'Fordism' to 'post-Fordism'; i.e., a shift from the predominance of economies driven by manufacturing industries characterized by a mass, somewhat homogeneous, semi-skilled workforce, towards economies dominated by employment in services, linked with a more heterogeneous, fragmented workforce. These 'ideal-typical' production systems have their organizational associates. Large-scale productive activities were escorted by bureaucratic systems of personnel administration and steady organizational careers. The growth of flexible production systems, it is argued, has been escorted by organizational 'delayering' and the turning down of the long-term, single organization, career. The move to service employment ca... For instance, in Britain, employment in services has grown from fifty-three per cent of total employment in 1971, to seventy-three per cent in 1993. Developments in technology have been of substantial importance in facilitating flexible systems of production and work organization in services, which by their very nature frequently have to be accessible outside the 'standard hours' linked with the 'standard worker'. In addition the product of service work the service needs the exercise of different qualities and skills, often of an interpersonal nature compared with those linked with manual and low-level work in manufacturing industry. The coming out of new occupations, and the restructuring of old occupations and skills, has produced new problems of control, classification and regulation. During an industrial era (in the West) dominated by large-scale manufacturing industry, the regulatory systems which emerged leaned to be dominated by those established in the leading industries, even though there were, certainly, noteworthy cross-national variations in this regard. 'Fordism' and the supremacy of manual trade unions have as well been associated to Keynesian economic strategies of demand management and other forms of macroeconomic intervention. In Britain, the Conservative government has since 1979 rejected such efforts to regulate the economy, and has been committed to a fundamental market philosophy, endorsing increased labour market flexibility. Therefore succeeding Conservative governments have hunted to remove or privatize welfare protections and regulatory institutions, to rouse the market for labour and skills by dropping rates of income tax at the upper levels, as well as to shift the balance between direct and indirect

Effective Communication Essay Example for Free

Effective Communication Essay Effective communication is essential in any workplace, especially within a criminal justice organization. In this paper, the author will discuss the process of verbal and nonverbal communication and the associated components of each, the differences between listening and hearing in communication, the formal and informal channels of communication in criminal justice organizations and the strategies that may be implemented to overcome communication barriers therein. Types of Communication and the Process Involved  Communication is defined as â€Å"a process involving several steps, among two or more persons, for the primary purpose of exchanging information. † (Wallace Roberson, 2009). This process can involve two types of communication: verbal and nonverbal. Verbal Verbal communication includes transmitting information orally. This type of communication can involve sharing information or exchanging ideas between two people or a group. Speaking is just one aspect of verbal communication. Verbal communication does not solely involve the sender transmitting the message to the receiver. Verbal communication also involves listening from the receiver and giving feedback to the sender as a confirmation that the message was understood. In a criminal justice organization, â€Å"oral communication skills are necessary to talk with members of the general public, request assistance from other officers, advise suspects of their Miranda rights, and inform supervisors that certain actions have occurred. † (Wallace Roberson, 2009). Being an officer requires a lot of verbal communication to fulfill some of the essential duties of working in law enforcement. Nonverbal Nonverbal communication includes written communication via reports, memorandums, notes from meetings, notes taken from accounts between officers and witnesses, victims, suspects, etc. Nonverbal can also include facial expressions. Facial expressions and body language oftentimes are used to convey emotions when words are absent. The Process of Communication The process of communication involves transmitting an idea, sending the idea through a medium (verbal/nonverbal), receiving the message, understanding the idea, and providing feedback to the message sender. The first step of transmitting an idea â€Å"implies the formation of one or several thoughts and the desire to express these ideas†. (Wallace Roberson, 2009). The next step involves choosing a method of communicating that idea. This can be done through verbal or nonverbal communication. Despite what method is used, it is imperative to know who the audience is and decide what tone the message is to be delivered. The tone, especially with oral communication, can make a world of a difference in how the receiver interprets the message. When the receiver then receives the message, his interpretation may not be how the message was originally intended to be received. The understanding of the idea or message relies strongly on interpretation of the person receiving the message. The process is then completed when the receiver provides feedback to the message sender by clarifying what he or she understood and then agreeing or disagreeing with the message itself. All these steps are part of the communication process, if one step fails then the communication becomes ineffective and invaluable. Listening vs. Hearing  According to the American Heritage College Dictionary, the word hearing is defined as â€Å"the sense by which sound is perceived; the capacity to hear† (2009). Hearing can include the capacity to hear the audio of the message being received and the words being enunciated, but it cannot ensure whether the message was indeed understood. Hearing is only one part of the communication process. The ability to comprehend by actually listening to what is being said, understanding the message by using the aids such as tone, facial expressions and body language completes this process. Active listening is important to effective communication. Channels of Communication Channels of communication in a criminal justice organization help demonstrate how the information flows from one person or group to another. The flow of communication or channels can include formal or informal methods. Formal Formal channels of communication include orders, directives and written memorandums that follow a chain of command. Communication in this scenario usually flows downward from the highest level of the totem pole, such as a police chief down to its subordinates. This type of channel of communication has both its advantages and disadvantages. The advantage of using a formal channel promote uniformity within the department. All officers, despite their rank, receive the same information. The disadvantage of using formal channels is that it sometimes stops the free flow of communication. If this channel type of communication is used it does not leave much room for officers to exchange freely any information within their department. That is to say that patrol officers usually are not encouraged to communicate amongst their peers but rather just receive instruction from their superiors. This hinders the department because officers are not encouraged to help one another, communicate with each other and possibly provide or exchange crucial information that might help them execute their responsibilities. Informal Informal channels of communication include â€Å"unofficial routes of communication within a law enforcement agency. These channels do not appear on any organizational chart, and they may not be officially sanctioned by the department. † (Wallace Roberson, 2009). This type of communication usually allows a free flow of information within all those employed in criminal justice organization. The direction of communication usually does not go up or down the ladder of chain of command. It opens up and encourages communication between officers and the different departments that make up the law enforcement agency. It promotes the sharing of information amongst peers that may ultimately contribute to successfully completing their duty of serving and protecting the community together as a team. Barriers to Effective Communication There are many barriers to effective communication. These barriers include emotional, physical and semantic barriers. Ineffective listening can also be construed as an important barrier as well. Emotional barriers can include an officer having low self esteem. This officer in question perhaps feels the need to refrain from communicating anything because he lacks self-confidence and is afraid to be put down by his peers. Many agencies have confronted this type of barrier by providing peer support groups so that they can work together to break these feelings of insecurity and promote a sense of trust. Physical barriers can breakdown communication. Physical barriers can include the use of faulty equipment where messages cannot be transmitted from one to another because the radio transmitters are not working or the computers in the vehicles or in the office are down. Having readily available and working technological equipment can help with communication between officers. Other types of physical barriers is perhaps the distance between officers when they are communicating. Shortening the distance can help provide a feeling of camaraderie and trust. Semantics involve the selection of words you choose to aid you with your communication. Obviously if you choose the wrong word, the communication will not be as effective and the entire message can be misread. Ineffective listening can also play a role in hindering the communication process. If one is not engaged in the speaker because perhaps they do not find the speaker or his/her topic interesting enough, or perhaps you already have your biases or set opinions on what is being said and so your are listening with a closed mind, this can lend to ruining the communication between you and the sender. Strategies to Overcome Barriers In order to overcome the above mentioned barriers, you must first understand what kind of barrier is preventing the flow of communication. Once pinpointing the type of barrier you can proceed to try and remove those barriers so that you can become an effective communicator. Emotional barriers can be dealt with by working on self improvement such as going to counseling for depression or self esteem issues can help. Law enforcement agencies can provide help with finding the right person to talk to or by providing a peer support group you can join to help deal with these types of emotional barriers. Physical barriers can be handled by ensuring that all equipment used within the department is adequately functioning and therefore the lines of communication can remain open. If the physical barrier involves distance between officers, then that distance needs to be shortened so that the communication between these officers allows for better exchange between them. Barriers that involve semantics can be improved upon by going to school or studying grammar, and word selection. The internet is a great way to explore tools that can help with improving your communication skills with words. Identifying what barriers are preventing someone from exchanging information and finding appropriate solutions to overcome these challenges will ensure a better and more effective way of communicating. Conclusion As children we learned early on how to communicate first without words then learning to speak and finally learning to write. Communication is a vital part of life. Without proper communication, the exchange of ideas and messages cannot be conveyed between people in either a personal or professional setting. Communication within a criminal justice organization is just as important. Learning how the process of communication works and identifying the barriers that breakdown this communication are tools that are needed. Communication is crucial to helping overall with the execution of law enforcement.

Price Forecasts for Oil

Price Forecasts for Oil â€Å"TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING CRISIS ANALYSIS† Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART ONE Michel Godet indicated that qualitative parameters were important in accurate forecasting. Using the available information in the international literature and between 1000 and 1500 words: 1. Mention the qualitative parameters that may be considered in future energy price scenarios. For this purpose take the year 2020 and list, with a brief explanation, the parameters you consider should be included. 2. Which of these parameters can you reasonably quantify? (Attempt to identify at least five parameters) 3. Do you agree with this specific aspect of Godets proposition? Why or why not? 4. Evaluate a crisis impact of the accuracy of technology forecasting. Identify the parameters characterizing the crisis aspects. Accordingly, present your opinion about the validity of the forecasts. 5. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 estimate (using extrapolation techniques) the expected nuclear power time evolution between 1987 and 2007. Comment on the accuracy of your forecasts in relation with the real data. Can you mention any lead time between the major accident of Chernobyl and the reaction of the international electrical power market? PART TWO The OPEC oil price rise in 1973 had an important effect on energy use and energy efficiency, although much of the impact was short-lived. In 2003-4 the oil price effectively doubled, reaching $50/barrel for a period and lately it has reached over $90/barrel. A major player now is Gazprom in Russia News has broken that Gazprom will cut supplies of natural gas to Europe unless it is allowed to raise prices by 200% for export customers, (Customers in Russia historically pay much lower prices). Using the available information in the international literature and between 2000 and 2500 words: 6. Describe your measured response to this, as either an energy Supplier or major energy user. 7. Would you say that your response was based upon â€Å"out of the box† solutions, or a more conservative, incremental approach? 8. Discuss the relative merits and limitations of each of these possible responses, identifying what you believe the two approaches mean. 9. How this crisis shall influence the future of European economies? How could these effects been mitigated? Make your own forecasts. Your answers to 6-8 above are based upon assumed positions within organisations which may employ many people. The next part of this question relates to the impact rising energy prices and, perhaps more importantly, the effect of climate change, may have on your own style of living. 10. At a personal/domestic level, can you foresee a situation in which we may consider that for the benefit of all, we may need to make do with less, in terms of capital goods, travel, and perceived acceptable levels of comfort? Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART A-Introduction Based on the Prospective approach and the scenarios method (Godet, 1982), Michel Godet noted the limitations of the classical forecasting concerned with quantification and models (see also Appendix, Table Ap.I). According to Godet, models that only consider quantified parameters do not take into account the development of new relationships and the possible changes in trends. The impossibility of forecasting the future as a function solely of past data is directly related to the omission of qualitative and non-quantifiable parameters such as the wishes and behaviour of relevant actors (Godet, 1982). Furthermore, to structure future scenarios, the variables related to the phenomenon under investigation and the variables configuring its environment should be recognized and analyzed in detail. Besides, the interrelationship among variables, the relative power and fundamental actors, their strategies and available resources as well as the objectives and constraints that must be overcome, should also be taken into account. By granting energy as a commodity under the view of conventional economic theories, markets and price mechanisms are used in order to allocate the respective resources. More specifically, it is the interaction of demand and supply in the markets that allocates resources and largely shapes prices, and it is the broader ecosystem boundaries that these market interactions take place in. Energy pricing, with energy being perceived either as an input or as a potentially polluting source of our ecosystem, clearly stands upon both the sub disciplines of resource and environmental economics (Sweeney, 2004), also depending on the social, political and technological status of the time being and the time to come until 2020. In this context, one may acknowledge a bundle of parameters that may be considered for configuring the respective future energy price scenarios. What is important to note is that similar to the beliefs of Godet, the parameters involved should be studied in terms of interrela tionship, while qualitative and non quantified parameters should be taken into account as well. Question 1 As already mentioned, the configuration of prices within a market -the energy market currently discussed- is largely dependent on the supply and demand balance. This is measured by the respective supply and demand tension expressing the status of a commodity in market terms and providing indications concerning potential energy price changes. While high tensions imply prices imbalance, the opposite is valid for low tension rates. Hence, in order to evaluate future energy prices on the basis of parameters, one should identify the parameters that influence the supply-demand balance in every of the fields previously acknowledged (i.e. social, political, environmental, economical and technological). In this context, in 1.1 the most influential of the parameters configuring energy prices may be encountered. Energy markets are largely influenced by the economic growth factors expressed on the basis of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, interest and unemployment rates. Given the economic growth along with the parameter of demographics (regarding both the population increase and migrations) one may picture the corresponding trend in energy consumption (i.e. the demand side). Following, policy decisions concerning the determination of fuel mix are determinative as far as energy pricing is considered. For instance, fossil fuels continuing to dominate will stimulate stricter pollution prevention legislation measures (e.g. taxation) and policies for tackling climate change and global warming that will raise energy prices. In parallel, the reinforcement of the respective market holders, potentially leading to strong monopolies, should also be expected. Turning to renewable energy sources may on the one hand -for some of the technologies- imply an adjustment period in order for the corresponding markets to balance and on the other entail significant environmental benefits, in monetary terms as well. Global warming and climate change effects being evident supports the implementation of mitigation measures towards the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this holding a key role in respect of the future. Reserves holding a key role in the future configuration of energy prices not only in terms of scarcity, but also in terms of production costs is directly related with the technological development concerning the exploitation of new deposits and the promotion of substitutes. As already implied, the power of existing markets is another key factor while the efficiency and absorption of energy investments -the investment shares and outcomes of research and development efforts should be underlined- must be also taken into account. The factors concerned with the quality of life suggest an additional parameter that may affect energy consumption patterns and one that cannot be easily captured despite of the indices recommended so far (Allen, 1991). Moreover, as properly put in the Annual Energy Outlook of 2007 (EIA, 2007a), energy markets projections are subject to much uncertainty (unanticipated events). Many of the events that shape energy markets and therefore the price of energy as well cannot be foreseen. These include unexpected weather events and natural disasters (Rezek and Blair, 2008), major innovations and technological breakthroughs (Marbà ¡n and Valdà ©s-Solà ­s, 2007; Varandas, 2008), disruptions and whirls in the political level (Stern, 2006) with analogous societal consequences, the outbreak of a war (Tahmassebi, 1986; Fernandez, 2008) or a nuclear accident, all of them either smouldering or implying blind spots that cannot be directly projected and consequently quantified. Besides, another area of uncertainty is concerned with the fact that even the established trends steady evolution cannot be guaranteed. Summarizing, a brief explanation was presently given on how each of the parameters acknowledged may influence energy pricing. Additionally, an effort was also carried out in order to give a short description of the interrelationship among parameters, this supporting one of Godets arguments. Insisting on the interrelationship of variables, several of the parameters previously encountered should be diffused to every major regional energy market, the latter being largely influenced by the relationship between fuel types and energy sectors (see also 1.2). Eventually, one may result in a rather complex system that encounters the evolution of influential parameters inside the balance between energy types and energy sectors, this revealing the crucial role of energy fuel mix previously discussed. Following, an effort is carried out in order to reasonably quantify some of the parameters acknowledged. Question 2 Given the bundle of parameters that are thought to influence future energy pricing, a certain number of them can be quantified. For instance, the parameters of population, economic growth, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, energy reserves, and energy fuel mix can be expressed in numerical terms. Demographic growth examines how regional and global demography changes over time. According to the United Nations projections (UN, 2006), world population will increase by over 1 billion people in the years to come until 2020, this suggesting an annual increase rate of 1.1%. While in some areas there is a negative population growth to be considered (e.g. European countries), the opposite may be encountered for some of the Asian countries (e.g. India) where overpopulation is met (see for example 2.1 with EIA forecasts). Besides, the migration of people comprises an additional factor influencing energy patterns via the imposition of unequal population distribution already encountered due to birth and mortality rates. Based on the energy consumption trends ( 2.2), it is expected that energy demand related to all energy products will increase in the years to come, even in such levels that supply may not be able to adequately respond (Asif and Muneer, 2007). In fact, the annual world energy consumption growth is approximately 2% with projections supporting future average rates of 1.1% per annum (EIA, 2007b). In fact, by considering the two of parameters so far examined one may result in the most substantial energy per cap index, clearly establishing the differentiation in energy consumption patterns among world regions (see also question 10). Furthermore, according to the WEO claims (WEC, 2007) that energy generated from fossil fuels will remain the main energy source (expected to cover almost 83% of global energy demand in 2030) and given the 2020 time horizon, much depends on the appearing constraints of world energy reserves, especially those regarding oil and natural gas. While certain studies sound relieving (WCI, 2007), others questioning the extent of increase in the production outputs ring the alarm of forthcoming peaks within the next one or two decades (Bentley, 2002). If the latter is valid, the corresponding demand will not be met, prices will rise, inflation, and international tension will become very likely to occur, and inevitably energy users will have to ration (Wirl, 2008). Overall, what the combination of energy mix with energy reserves provides is the measuring of security of supply, the latter configuring the supply and demand tensions, largely shaping energy prices. Besides, targets set in respect of renewable energy sources further penetration also provide a quantification view; e.g. the EWEA target for 22% coverage of the European electricity consumption by 2030 (EWEA, 2006). Next, expressing economic growth on the basis of gross domestic product (GDP) suggests a constant increase of the former within the range of an average 3% to 4% per year (IMF, 2004), noted during the period from 1970 to 2003. Again, inequity that is to be considered among different world regions is directly related with the previous parameters, illustrating the energy requirements variation. A characteristic example considers China demonstrating an average annual percent change of GDP 2.4% greater than the world average. In 2.3, the respective trends of GDP growth up to the year 2020 may be obtained. Finally, the environmental impact of energy use being expressed on the basis of GHG emissions not only considers the fuel mix and energy consumption but also takes into account the technology used for energy generation. Taking CO2, an increase of 17Gt in a 34 years period, i.e. from 1970 to 2004 (IPCC, 2007), indicates the strong increasing trend, also presented in 2.4. Given also some of the commitments adopted in order to mitigate the greenhouse effect however (e.g. the Kyoto protocol), further quantification, not relying solely on past trends, is possible. The stimulation of additional mitigation measures until 2020 is rather likely, this both imposing the need for shifting to non-fossil fuels and developing cleaner energy generation technologies. Considering the various parameters trends illustrated above, one may sense that the tensions between supply and demand, this comprising the main driver for energy prices, are going to rise. Energy consumption, GDP and population rates on one hand demonstrate the demand side, while declining reserves and mitigation measures describe the opposite supply side. In between, the decisions for future energy fuel mix patterns, although able to completely reverse the energy markets status quo, are not thought to radically vary within the next 10 to 15 years. Hence, unless some major changes occur, the rising tensions between supply and demand imply both instability and increase of prices on a global level with strong differentiation to be encountered among different world regions. As far as the degree of energy price variation is concerned, the implementation of forecasting may both incorporate all of the pre-mentioned parameters and provide various scenarios considering each ones expected fu ture time evolution. Question 3 As previously seen, several parameters were acknowledged in order to form future energy price scenarios. While some of them were possible to quantify, others although not quantified were equally important inputs to keep in mind. Apart from the given inaccuracy of data (either high or low levelled) coupled with unstable models and the pertinacity of explaining the future in terms of the past, Godet emphasizes on the lack of a global and qualitative approach concerned with forecasting (Godet, 1982). Although quantitative methods may prove to be reliable enough and reasonably accurate for short term forecasts, the same is not valid for forecasts concerned with longer periods. The greater the distance from the reference point, the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to provide valid forecasts (see also 3.1). In this context, it is critical to comment on the relativity of time scales noted among the study of various phenomena. Hence, what may seem short termed for one phenomenon studied may actually comprise a long period forecast for another that appears to be rapidly changing over time. Any case given, the chances of significant changes regarding the environment in which the phenomenon under study develops are considerably higher as the time horizon becomes longer and it would be more or less naà ¯ve to solely depend on forecasting methods like the extrapolation of trends. Furthermore, the complexity of phenomena studied and the interdependence among the influencing parameters calls for the inclusion of both quantitative and qualitative parameters with Godet clearly addressing the complementarity between the prospective and classical forecasting (Godet, 1982). It was in fact during the first section of this part that the analysis of energy pricing configuration revealed the importance of interaction between quantitative and qualitative parameters. Energy price could not be disengaged from the parallel evolvement of parameters that even though not easily quantified, do structure the phenomenon environment (e.g. political, technological, economic, social, legal and other aspects). What must be outlined here is that similar to the scaling of decision making (strategic-long term, innovative-medium term, operational-short term), the role of quantitative data is gradually fading out as we tend to conceptualize the entire phenomenon environment. Hence the bro ader the view, again the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to support a reliable forecasting (see also 2.1). Although in its extreme point of view, Godets proposition perfectly fits the ability of diagnosing forthcoming crises. Already extremely difficult to predict a crisis, omitting parameters such as the wishes of relevant actors and other influential factors that cannot be quantified makes it impossible even to sense it. It is in this context that one should not disregard the importance of other forecasting resources -apart from data- including assumptions, insight and judgment, all of them involving the subjectivity factor. If managing to get over the reef of the NIH syndrome, creativity and broad minded thinking are also essential elements for good forecasting. Question 4 1973 may be granted as the most pivotal year in energy history. The energy crisis defining the period began on October 17, 1973, when the Arab members of OPEC along with Egypt and Syria, all together comprising OAPEC, decided to place an embargo on shipments of crude oil to nations that had supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt, mainly targeting at the United States and Netherlands. The result of this decision also brought about major oil price increases. Because of the fact that OPEC was the dominant oil distributor at the time, the price increase implied serious impacts on the national economies of the targeted countries, therefore suggesting an international range crisis. Although the embargo was lifted in March 1974, the effects of the energy crisis, mainly in terms of price increase, lingered on throughout the 1970s, with the Iranian crisis aggravating the situation (see also 4.1). Suggesting a crisis that was mainly expressed on the basis of high energy pricing, the outcome of the previous questions concerned with the determination of energy price influential parameters may be illustrated. In fact, the impact of a more or less unanticipated event changed the correlation patterns between supply and demand and imposed the attachment of high tensions in the market balance, the latter entailing the high volatility of oil price and its potential outburst ever since (Regnier, 2007). The market structures, the dominance of OPEC and the political tension, all suggest aspects of the crisis illustrating the importance of considering qualitative parameters as well. As Godet well pointed out, one cannot neglect the wishes and decisions of major actors when configuring the future (e.g. OPEC members). Similar to the 1973 oil crisis, the California energy crisis occurring some 27 years later also revealed the strength of key actors in completely changing what was meant to follow a past trend or ameliorate a past situation. The deregulation of the electricity market in California (during 1998) targeting to decrease the highest of retail prices among the States turned into a complete fiasco that abetted the manipulation of the market by the energy companies. The crisis main characteristics involved very high wholesale prices, interrupted service of customers (rolling blackouts), bankrupt utilities and huge state expenditures, while the crisis main causes were: The lack of new generating capacity inside California (California was heavily dependent on energy imports from nearby states (CEC, 2007a)). The coincidence of a dry year and natural gas spikes with other market oriented factors (California was largely based on hydro and natural gas for the consumers electrification). The market structure allowing generators to manipulate wholesale prices in the power exchange market through escalating power plants outages that caused market disorder (on the other hand there was a retail price cap that did not allow the investor owned utilities to pass the increasing cost of wholesale purchases to consumers). The delay and inability of the regulators to predict the crisis and respond to it (it was only after a certain time that a wholesale cap was set by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and an increase of retail prices was allowed to the investor owned utilities). Emphasizing on the manipulation of the market by the energy generators, in 4.2 one may observe the out of schedule power plant outages rapid increase during the period of the crisis, even exceeding 10GW (approximately 20% of the total installed capacity), responsible for three series of rolling blackouts. No prediction could have captured the 300% and 400% increases of power plants outages. The analogous increase in wholesale prices being the result of the appearing power deficit caused the major suppliers (3 major investor utilities (IOUs)) to be trapped between remarkable wholesale price increases and a fixed retail price (see 4.3). Further, as seen in 4.3, in the early days of deregulation a relatively smooth trend was to be encountered as far as the wholesale market prices are concerned, this also not implying the rapid increase of prices following. Accordingly, although not influenced to the same extent that the IOUs were, the instant impact to the final consumers must also be considered. Note that according to the rough forecast of retail electricity prices -being based on the respective past data- the increase of retail prices was not to be expected either because deregulation promised for a lowering of prices or because the trend applied entailed much lower prices then the ones actually presented at the time (see also 4.4). Similar to this, predictions involving oil pricing before the 1973 crisis and relying on extrapolation techniques (Anon, 1973) expected that world energy consumption would keep up in the increasing rates of 5% up to 2000. If having managed to somehow foresee the 1973 oil price increase, the predictions made would not be exclusively based on the past data trend that would undoubtedly provide a misjudgement of future prices (see also 4.5). What actually followed for the years to come (1980 to 2000) was a 20 years mean annual increase rate of 1.7%. Furthermore, if only having used quantitative data, none could have predicted before the crisis that USA would cut back on oil use. In , 4.6 the response of the USA to the crisis effect reveals the review of energy patterns issued by the government for the times to come. What is also interesting to note in the is the lead time in order to adapt to the new situation encountered (e.g. the natural gas contribution share started increasing 5 year s after the crisis). Another critical point concerning the weaknesses of forecasting previous to crises, not related to the use of numerical past data, may be met in the case of California. Once the regulators and the state adopted a deregulation system that was elsewhere applied successfully (Woo et al., 2003), they decided to proceed in certain modifications (i.e. partial deregulation and imposition of retail price caps) without bothering to consider the different characteristics, features and conditions of operation encountered in the California environment. Hence what might have been thought as successful elsewhere would not be a priori successful in California as well. Finally, if the modification of market structures and potential manipulations had been taken into account via the implementation of alternative scenarios assessing the risk of deregulating the Californian electricity market, certain versatile mechanisms that would instantly respond to a potential crisis may have been put forward. From the analysis provided it becomes clear that forecasting methods that solely rely on past data trends, disregard the wishes of relevant actors and major players, and do not consider the conditions forming the environment where the phenomenon develops cannot capture a broader view of the situation and thus give valid predictions. Question 5 As already addressed, the limited ability of quantitative parameters and extrapolation techniques to provide a valid forecasting, especially in the case where a crisis was to follow, is indisputable. To validate the conclusion made and further support Godets beliefs an example is presently given. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 along with the application of extrapolation techniques (the forecast function is currently used) one may present the expected nuclear capacity time evolution for the next twenty years. A straightforward comparison of the extrapolation s with the respective real data for the period 1987 to 2007 is available in 5.1. What of course cannot be captured by the extrapolation technique is the Chernobyl crisis, deeply influencing any further development of the nuclear installations. It was on the 26th of April 1986 that reactor number four at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, located in Ukraine exploded. By considering the magnitude of consequences that the Chernobyl accident entailed (UNDP UNICEF, 2002), one may easily realize the cut back of nuclear capacity in the years to come. Furthermore, what is interesting to note is the different influence that the Chernobyl accident had in countries around the world. In 5.2 one may see the immediate response of the Russians, the Germans and the Ukrainians, while it took a little longer for the USA to reconsider its nuclear program. On the contrary, countries like France and Japan continued to install nuclear plants, while on the other hand Italy abandoned its nuclear program and gradually decommissioned all of its plants (NEA, 2007). What is evaluated here, is the conditions configuring the future. Although in a global level, nuclear capacity did stagnate, this was not the case for every country. Depending on each nations needs, requirements and obligations, a different energy policy may be drawn. If not properly weighing these factors in the forecasting process, the outcome cannot be valid. Based on s 5.1 and 5.2, one may also note the lead time of both the international community and the selected countries. Regarding the response of the world as a whole, a period of 3 to 4 years is to be considered for the international community to perform the actions concerned with the decision of cutting back on nuclears. As already noted, a varying response time met in different countries may be partially ascribed to the distance range from the area of the accident. However, a bundle of parameters should be evaluated in order to explain and predict each actors wishes, obligations and decisions. Moreover, when investigating the long term evolution of nuclear power, one should also consider the factor of a rapidly changing environment. Since the Chernobyl accident and the stagnation of nuclear power occurred, any attempt to reestablish previous growth rates has to deal with competitors such as the galloping natural gas market, the return of the coal sector and the maturity of renewable energy technologies (Lovins, 2005). Besides, the considerations regarding waste management, decommissioning expenses and the risk of a new Chernobyl still remain strong. PART B-Introduction Europe becoming increasingly dependent on imported amounts of energy is indisputable. According to the estimations of the recent business as usual scenarios (EC, 2007), it is expected that the energy imports dependency of Europe will increase from the present 50% to a total of 65% by 2030. Within this forecast, reliance on imports of natural gas is expected to increase from 57% to 84% while the respective increase for oil imports shall correspond to an additional 11%, i.e. from 82% to 93%. In this context, European countries and Russia hold a strong interdependency bond based on the significant European energy imports of oil and natural gas supplied by Russia. Note that loss of autonomy is always a side effect of an interdependent relationship as the parties are constrained by their need for one another. Gazprom being the largest Russian company and the greatest natural gas exporter in the world (Cedigaz, 2007) constantly raises its share in the European market, with the respective volume of natural gas supplies reaching 161.5 billion cubic meters during 2006 (Gazprom, 2007), equal to approximately 26% of the total European natural gas needs. Being also Russias single natural gas exporter (according to the Federal Law on Natural Gas Exports adopted in July 2006), Gazprom alone utilizes the existing natural gas pipelines in order to supply Europe (see also Appendix, Existing Natural Gas Pipelines). Meanwhile a series of recent and past events mainly suggesting disputes with Ukraine and Belarus (Bruce, 2005; Stern, 2006) have questioned the security of supply towards Europe, this revealing the potential gaming behavior of the Russians, either to satisfy political purposes or simply take advantage of the energy card in terms of increased pricing. Similar to the 1973 energy crisis and the recent oil price major increases, a scenario concerned with the raise of European natural gas supplies price by Gazprom is to be examined. The scenario supports that unless the desire of Gazprom for a 200% increase of natural gas prices is satisfied, supply towards Europe will be stopped. Question 6 Given the threat of a 200% price increase of natural gas heading towards European countries, an effort is presently carried out in order to investigate the measured responses of both an energy supplier and an energy user being involved in the potential crisis occurrence. Because of the particular features attributed to the subject under investigation, several cases of different energy suppliers and users may be examined. A macroscopic approach may consider two major sides, i.e. the European countries and Gazprom (Russia). However, a closer look focusing on country level and considering organizations as well is thought to be essential in order to better evaluate the situation. As already seen in the previous question concerned with the nuclear power evolution, not all countries responded in the same way to the Chernobyl crisis (NEA, 2007). Working on a country level, energy users will derive from the main Gazprom customers in both Western-Central Europe and the Commonwealth of Indepen dent States (CIS)-Baltic countries (see also Table 6.I). On the other hand, the major energy supplier shall refer to either Gazprom or another natural gas supplier. The alternative of considering different energy sources suppliers will be also outlined. Furthermore, both conservative and more extreme solutions responding to the problem will be considered. Table 6.I: Key s o Price Forecasts for Oil Price Forecasts for Oil â€Å"TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING CRISIS ANALYSIS† Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART ONE Michel Godet indicated that qualitative parameters were important in accurate forecasting. Using the available information in the international literature and between 1000 and 1500 words: 1. Mention the qualitative parameters that may be considered in future energy price scenarios. For this purpose take the year 2020 and list, with a brief explanation, the parameters you consider should be included. 2. Which of these parameters can you reasonably quantify? (Attempt to identify at least five parameters) 3. Do you agree with this specific aspect of Godets proposition? Why or why not? 4. Evaluate a crisis impact of the accuracy of technology forecasting. Identify the parameters characterizing the crisis aspects. Accordingly, present your opinion about the validity of the forecasts. 5. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 estimate (using extrapolation techniques) the expected nuclear power time evolution between 1987 and 2007. Comment on the accuracy of your forecasts in relation with the real data. Can you mention any lead time between the major accident of Chernobyl and the reaction of the international electrical power market? PART TWO The OPEC oil price rise in 1973 had an important effect on energy use and energy efficiency, although much of the impact was short-lived. In 2003-4 the oil price effectively doubled, reaching $50/barrel for a period and lately it has reached over $90/barrel. A major player now is Gazprom in Russia News has broken that Gazprom will cut supplies of natural gas to Europe unless it is allowed to raise prices by 200% for export customers, (Customers in Russia historically pay much lower prices). Using the available information in the international literature and between 2000 and 2500 words: 6. Describe your measured response to this, as either an energy Supplier or major energy user. 7. Would you say that your response was based upon â€Å"out of the box† solutions, or a more conservative, incremental approach? 8. Discuss the relative merits and limitations of each of these possible responses, identifying what you believe the two approaches mean. 9. How this crisis shall influence the future of European economies? How could these effects been mitigated? Make your own forecasts. Your answers to 6-8 above are based upon assumed positions within organisations which may employ many people. The next part of this question relates to the impact rising energy prices and, perhaps more importantly, the effect of climate change, may have on your own style of living. 10. At a personal/domestic level, can you foresee a situation in which we may consider that for the benefit of all, we may need to make do with less, in terms of capital goods, travel, and perceived acceptable levels of comfort? Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART A-Introduction Based on the Prospective approach and the scenarios method (Godet, 1982), Michel Godet noted the limitations of the classical forecasting concerned with quantification and models (see also Appendix, Table Ap.I). According to Godet, models that only consider quantified parameters do not take into account the development of new relationships and the possible changes in trends. The impossibility of forecasting the future as a function solely of past data is directly related to the omission of qualitative and non-quantifiable parameters such as the wishes and behaviour of relevant actors (Godet, 1982). Furthermore, to structure future scenarios, the variables related to the phenomenon under investigation and the variables configuring its environment should be recognized and analyzed in detail. Besides, the interrelationship among variables, the relative power and fundamental actors, their strategies and available resources as well as the objectives and constraints that must be overcome, should also be taken into account. By granting energy as a commodity under the view of conventional economic theories, markets and price mechanisms are used in order to allocate the respective resources. More specifically, it is the interaction of demand and supply in the markets that allocates resources and largely shapes prices, and it is the broader ecosystem boundaries that these market interactions take place in. Energy pricing, with energy being perceived either as an input or as a potentially polluting source of our ecosystem, clearly stands upon both the sub disciplines of resource and environmental economics (Sweeney, 2004), also depending on the social, political and technological status of the time being and the time to come until 2020. In this context, one may acknowledge a bundle of parameters that may be considered for configuring the respective future energy price scenarios. What is important to note is that similar to the beliefs of Godet, the parameters involved should be studied in terms of interrela tionship, while qualitative and non quantified parameters should be taken into account as well. Question 1 As already mentioned, the configuration of prices within a market -the energy market currently discussed- is largely dependent on the supply and demand balance. This is measured by the respective supply and demand tension expressing the status of a commodity in market terms and providing indications concerning potential energy price changes. While high tensions imply prices imbalance, the opposite is valid for low tension rates. Hence, in order to evaluate future energy prices on the basis of parameters, one should identify the parameters that influence the supply-demand balance in every of the fields previously acknowledged (i.e. social, political, environmental, economical and technological). In this context, in 1.1 the most influential of the parameters configuring energy prices may be encountered. Energy markets are largely influenced by the economic growth factors expressed on the basis of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, interest and unemployment rates. Given the economic growth along with the parameter of demographics (regarding both the population increase and migrations) one may picture the corresponding trend in energy consumption (i.e. the demand side). Following, policy decisions concerning the determination of fuel mix are determinative as far as energy pricing is considered. For instance, fossil fuels continuing to dominate will stimulate stricter pollution prevention legislation measures (e.g. taxation) and policies for tackling climate change and global warming that will raise energy prices. In parallel, the reinforcement of the respective market holders, potentially leading to strong monopolies, should also be expected. Turning to renewable energy sources may on the one hand -for some of the technologies- imply an adjustment period in order for the corresponding markets to balance and on the other entail significant environmental benefits, in monetary terms as well. Global warming and climate change effects being evident supports the implementation of mitigation measures towards the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this holding a key role in respect of the future. Reserves holding a key role in the future configuration of energy prices not only in terms of scarcity, but also in terms of production costs is directly related with the technological development concerning the exploitation of new deposits and the promotion of substitutes. As already implied, the power of existing markets is another key factor while the efficiency and absorption of energy investments -the investment shares and outcomes of research and development efforts should be underlined- must be also taken into account. The factors concerned with the quality of life suggest an additional parameter that may affect energy consumption patterns and one that cannot be easily captured despite of the indices recommended so far (Allen, 1991). Moreover, as properly put in the Annual Energy Outlook of 2007 (EIA, 2007a), energy markets projections are subject to much uncertainty (unanticipated events). Many of the events that shape energy markets and therefore the price of energy as well cannot be foreseen. These include unexpected weather events and natural disasters (Rezek and Blair, 2008), major innovations and technological breakthroughs (Marbà ¡n and Valdà ©s-Solà ­s, 2007; Varandas, 2008), disruptions and whirls in the political level (Stern, 2006) with analogous societal consequences, the outbreak of a war (Tahmassebi, 1986; Fernandez, 2008) or a nuclear accident, all of them either smouldering or implying blind spots that cannot be directly projected and consequently quantified. Besides, another area of uncertainty is concerned with the fact that even the established trends steady evolution cannot be guaranteed. Summarizing, a brief explanation was presently given on how each of the parameters acknowledged may influence energy pricing. Additionally, an effort was also carried out in order to give a short description of the interrelationship among parameters, this supporting one of Godets arguments. Insisting on the interrelationship of variables, several of the parameters previously encountered should be diffused to every major regional energy market, the latter being largely influenced by the relationship between fuel types and energy sectors (see also 1.2). Eventually, one may result in a rather complex system that encounters the evolution of influential parameters inside the balance between energy types and energy sectors, this revealing the crucial role of energy fuel mix previously discussed. Following, an effort is carried out in order to reasonably quantify some of the parameters acknowledged. Question 2 Given the bundle of parameters that are thought to influence future energy pricing, a certain number of them can be quantified. For instance, the parameters of population, economic growth, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, energy reserves, and energy fuel mix can be expressed in numerical terms. Demographic growth examines how regional and global demography changes over time. According to the United Nations projections (UN, 2006), world population will increase by over 1 billion people in the years to come until 2020, this suggesting an annual increase rate of 1.1%. While in some areas there is a negative population growth to be considered (e.g. European countries), the opposite may be encountered for some of the Asian countries (e.g. India) where overpopulation is met (see for example 2.1 with EIA forecasts). Besides, the migration of people comprises an additional factor influencing energy patterns via the imposition of unequal population distribution already encountered due to birth and mortality rates. Based on the energy consumption trends ( 2.2), it is expected that energy demand related to all energy products will increase in the years to come, even in such levels that supply may not be able to adequately respond (Asif and Muneer, 2007). In fact, the annual world energy consumption growth is approximately 2% with projections supporting future average rates of 1.1% per annum (EIA, 2007b). In fact, by considering the two of parameters so far examined one may result in the most substantial energy per cap index, clearly establishing the differentiation in energy consumption patterns among world regions (see also question 10). Furthermore, according to the WEO claims (WEC, 2007) that energy generated from fossil fuels will remain the main energy source (expected to cover almost 83% of global energy demand in 2030) and given the 2020 time horizon, much depends on the appearing constraints of world energy reserves, especially those regarding oil and natural gas. While certain studies sound relieving (WCI, 2007), others questioning the extent of increase in the production outputs ring the alarm of forthcoming peaks within the next one or two decades (Bentley, 2002). If the latter is valid, the corresponding demand will not be met, prices will rise, inflation, and international tension will become very likely to occur, and inevitably energy users will have to ration (Wirl, 2008). Overall, what the combination of energy mix with energy reserves provides is the measuring of security of supply, the latter configuring the supply and demand tensions, largely shaping energy prices. Besides, targets set in respect of renewable energy sources further penetration also provide a quantification view; e.g. the EWEA target for 22% coverage of the European electricity consumption by 2030 (EWEA, 2006). Next, expressing economic growth on the basis of gross domestic product (GDP) suggests a constant increase of the former within the range of an average 3% to 4% per year (IMF, 2004), noted during the period from 1970 to 2003. Again, inequity that is to be considered among different world regions is directly related with the previous parameters, illustrating the energy requirements variation. A characteristic example considers China demonstrating an average annual percent change of GDP 2.4% greater than the world average. In 2.3, the respective trends of GDP growth up to the year 2020 may be obtained. Finally, the environmental impact of energy use being expressed on the basis of GHG emissions not only considers the fuel mix and energy consumption but also takes into account the technology used for energy generation. Taking CO2, an increase of 17Gt in a 34 years period, i.e. from 1970 to 2004 (IPCC, 2007), indicates the strong increasing trend, also presented in 2.4. Given also some of the commitments adopted in order to mitigate the greenhouse effect however (e.g. the Kyoto protocol), further quantification, not relying solely on past trends, is possible. The stimulation of additional mitigation measures until 2020 is rather likely, this both imposing the need for shifting to non-fossil fuels and developing cleaner energy generation technologies. Considering the various parameters trends illustrated above, one may sense that the tensions between supply and demand, this comprising the main driver for energy prices, are going to rise. Energy consumption, GDP and population rates on one hand demonstrate the demand side, while declining reserves and mitigation measures describe the opposite supply side. In between, the decisions for future energy fuel mix patterns, although able to completely reverse the energy markets status quo, are not thought to radically vary within the next 10 to 15 years. Hence, unless some major changes occur, the rising tensions between supply and demand imply both instability and increase of prices on a global level with strong differentiation to be encountered among different world regions. As far as the degree of energy price variation is concerned, the implementation of forecasting may both incorporate all of the pre-mentioned parameters and provide various scenarios considering each ones expected fu ture time evolution. Question 3 As previously seen, several parameters were acknowledged in order to form future energy price scenarios. While some of them were possible to quantify, others although not quantified were equally important inputs to keep in mind. Apart from the given inaccuracy of data (either high or low levelled) coupled with unstable models and the pertinacity of explaining the future in terms of the past, Godet emphasizes on the lack of a global and qualitative approach concerned with forecasting (Godet, 1982). Although quantitative methods may prove to be reliable enough and reasonably accurate for short term forecasts, the same is not valid for forecasts concerned with longer periods. The greater the distance from the reference point, the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to provide valid forecasts (see also 3.1). In this context, it is critical to comment on the relativity of time scales noted among the study of various phenomena. Hence, what may seem short termed for one phenomenon studied may actually comprise a long period forecast for another that appears to be rapidly changing over time. Any case given, the chances of significant changes regarding the environment in which the phenomenon under study develops are considerably higher as the time horizon becomes longer and it would be more or less naà ¯ve to solely depend on forecasting methods like the extrapolation of trends. Furthermore, the complexity of phenomena studied and the interdependence among the influencing parameters calls for the inclusion of both quantitative and qualitative parameters with Godet clearly addressing the complementarity between the prospective and classical forecasting (Godet, 1982). It was in fact during the first section of this part that the analysis of energy pricing configuration revealed the importance of interaction between quantitative and qualitative parameters. Energy price could not be disengaged from the parallel evolvement of parameters that even though not easily quantified, do structure the phenomenon environment (e.g. political, technological, economic, social, legal and other aspects). What must be outlined here is that similar to the scaling of decision making (strategic-long term, innovative-medium term, operational-short term), the role of quantitative data is gradually fading out as we tend to conceptualize the entire phenomenon environment. Hence the bro ader the view, again the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to support a reliable forecasting (see also 2.1). Although in its extreme point of view, Godets proposition perfectly fits the ability of diagnosing forthcoming crises. Already extremely difficult to predict a crisis, omitting parameters such as the wishes of relevant actors and other influential factors that cannot be quantified makes it impossible even to sense it. It is in this context that one should not disregard the importance of other forecasting resources -apart from data- including assumptions, insight and judgment, all of them involving the subjectivity factor. If managing to get over the reef of the NIH syndrome, creativity and broad minded thinking are also essential elements for good forecasting. Question 4 1973 may be granted as the most pivotal year in energy history. The energy crisis defining the period began on October 17, 1973, when the Arab members of OPEC along with Egypt and Syria, all together comprising OAPEC, decided to place an embargo on shipments of crude oil to nations that had supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt, mainly targeting at the United States and Netherlands. The result of this decision also brought about major oil price increases. Because of the fact that OPEC was the dominant oil distributor at the time, the price increase implied serious impacts on the national economies of the targeted countries, therefore suggesting an international range crisis. Although the embargo was lifted in March 1974, the effects of the energy crisis, mainly in terms of price increase, lingered on throughout the 1970s, with the Iranian crisis aggravating the situation (see also 4.1). Suggesting a crisis that was mainly expressed on the basis of high energy pricing, the outcome of the previous questions concerned with the determination of energy price influential parameters may be illustrated. In fact, the impact of a more or less unanticipated event changed the correlation patterns between supply and demand and imposed the attachment of high tensions in the market balance, the latter entailing the high volatility of oil price and its potential outburst ever since (Regnier, 2007). The market structures, the dominance of OPEC and the political tension, all suggest aspects of the crisis illustrating the importance of considering qualitative parameters as well. As Godet well pointed out, one cannot neglect the wishes and decisions of major actors when configuring the future (e.g. OPEC members). Similar to the 1973 oil crisis, the California energy crisis occurring some 27 years later also revealed the strength of key actors in completely changing what was meant to follow a past trend or ameliorate a past situation. The deregulation of the electricity market in California (during 1998) targeting to decrease the highest of retail prices among the States turned into a complete fiasco that abetted the manipulation of the market by the energy companies. The crisis main characteristics involved very high wholesale prices, interrupted service of customers (rolling blackouts), bankrupt utilities and huge state expenditures, while the crisis main causes were: The lack of new generating capacity inside California (California was heavily dependent on energy imports from nearby states (CEC, 2007a)). The coincidence of a dry year and natural gas spikes with other market oriented factors (California was largely based on hydro and natural gas for the consumers electrification). The market structure allowing generators to manipulate wholesale prices in the power exchange market through escalating power plants outages that caused market disorder (on the other hand there was a retail price cap that did not allow the investor owned utilities to pass the increasing cost of wholesale purchases to consumers). The delay and inability of the regulators to predict the crisis and respond to it (it was only after a certain time that a wholesale cap was set by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and an increase of retail prices was allowed to the investor owned utilities). Emphasizing on the manipulation of the market by the energy generators, in 4.2 one may observe the out of schedule power plant outages rapid increase during the period of the crisis, even exceeding 10GW (approximately 20% of the total installed capacity), responsible for three series of rolling blackouts. No prediction could have captured the 300% and 400% increases of power plants outages. The analogous increase in wholesale prices being the result of the appearing power deficit caused the major suppliers (3 major investor utilities (IOUs)) to be trapped between remarkable wholesale price increases and a fixed retail price (see 4.3). Further, as seen in 4.3, in the early days of deregulation a relatively smooth trend was to be encountered as far as the wholesale market prices are concerned, this also not implying the rapid increase of prices following. Accordingly, although not influenced to the same extent that the IOUs were, the instant impact to the final consumers must also be considered. Note that according to the rough forecast of retail electricity prices -being based on the respective past data- the increase of retail prices was not to be expected either because deregulation promised for a lowering of prices or because the trend applied entailed much lower prices then the ones actually presented at the time (see also 4.4). Similar to this, predictions involving oil pricing before the 1973 crisis and relying on extrapolation techniques (Anon, 1973) expected that world energy consumption would keep up in the increasing rates of 5% up to 2000. If having managed to somehow foresee the 1973 oil price increase, the predictions made would not be exclusively based on the past data trend that would undoubtedly provide a misjudgement of future prices (see also 4.5). What actually followed for the years to come (1980 to 2000) was a 20 years mean annual increase rate of 1.7%. Furthermore, if only having used quantitative data, none could have predicted before the crisis that USA would cut back on oil use. In , 4.6 the response of the USA to the crisis effect reveals the review of energy patterns issued by the government for the times to come. What is also interesting to note in the is the lead time in order to adapt to the new situation encountered (e.g. the natural gas contribution share started increasing 5 year s after the crisis). Another critical point concerning the weaknesses of forecasting previous to crises, not related to the use of numerical past data, may be met in the case of California. Once the regulators and the state adopted a deregulation system that was elsewhere applied successfully (Woo et al., 2003), they decided to proceed in certain modifications (i.e. partial deregulation and imposition of retail price caps) without bothering to consider the different characteristics, features and conditions of operation encountered in the California environment. Hence what might have been thought as successful elsewhere would not be a priori successful in California as well. Finally, if the modification of market structures and potential manipulations had been taken into account via the implementation of alternative scenarios assessing the risk of deregulating the Californian electricity market, certain versatile mechanisms that would instantly respond to a potential crisis may have been put forward. From the analysis provided it becomes clear that forecasting methods that solely rely on past data trends, disregard the wishes of relevant actors and major players, and do not consider the conditions forming the environment where the phenomenon develops cannot capture a broader view of the situation and thus give valid predictions. Question 5 As already addressed, the limited ability of quantitative parameters and extrapolation techniques to provide a valid forecasting, especially in the case where a crisis was to follow, is indisputable. To validate the conclusion made and further support Godets beliefs an example is presently given. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 along with the application of extrapolation techniques (the forecast function is currently used) one may present the expected nuclear capacity time evolution for the next twenty years. A straightforward comparison of the extrapolation s with the respective real data for the period 1987 to 2007 is available in 5.1. What of course cannot be captured by the extrapolation technique is the Chernobyl crisis, deeply influencing any further development of the nuclear installations. It was on the 26th of April 1986 that reactor number four at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, located in Ukraine exploded. By considering the magnitude of consequences that the Chernobyl accident entailed (UNDP UNICEF, 2002), one may easily realize the cut back of nuclear capacity in the years to come. Furthermore, what is interesting to note is the different influence that the Chernobyl accident had in countries around the world. In 5.2 one may see the immediate response of the Russians, the Germans and the Ukrainians, while it took a little longer for the USA to reconsider its nuclear program. On the contrary, countries like France and Japan continued to install nuclear plants, while on the other hand Italy abandoned its nuclear program and gradually decommissioned all of its plants (NEA, 2007). What is evaluated here, is the conditions configuring the future. Although in a global level, nuclear capacity did stagnate, this was not the case for every country. Depending on each nations needs, requirements and obligations, a different energy policy may be drawn. If not properly weighing these factors in the forecasting process, the outcome cannot be valid. Based on s 5.1 and 5.2, one may also note the lead time of both the international community and the selected countries. Regarding the response of the world as a whole, a period of 3 to 4 years is to be considered for the international community to perform the actions concerned with the decision of cutting back on nuclears. As already noted, a varying response time met in different countries may be partially ascribed to the distance range from the area of the accident. However, a bundle of parameters should be evaluated in order to explain and predict each actors wishes, obligations and decisions. Moreover, when investigating the long term evolution of nuclear power, one should also consider the factor of a rapidly changing environment. Since the Chernobyl accident and the stagnation of nuclear power occurred, any attempt to reestablish previous growth rates has to deal with competitors such as the galloping natural gas market, the return of the coal sector and the maturity of renewable energy technologies (Lovins, 2005). Besides, the considerations regarding waste management, decommissioning expenses and the risk of a new Chernobyl still remain strong. PART B-Introduction Europe becoming increasingly dependent on imported amounts of energy is indisputable. According to the estimations of the recent business as usual scenarios (EC, 2007), it is expected that the energy imports dependency of Europe will increase from the present 50% to a total of 65% by 2030. Within this forecast, reliance on imports of natural gas is expected to increase from 57% to 84% while the respective increase for oil imports shall correspond to an additional 11%, i.e. from 82% to 93%. In this context, European countries and Russia hold a strong interdependency bond based on the significant European energy imports of oil and natural gas supplied by Russia. Note that loss of autonomy is always a side effect of an interdependent relationship as the parties are constrained by their need for one another. Gazprom being the largest Russian company and the greatest natural gas exporter in the world (Cedigaz, 2007) constantly raises its share in the European market, with the respective volume of natural gas supplies reaching 161.5 billion cubic meters during 2006 (Gazprom, 2007), equal to approximately 26% of the total European natural gas needs. Being also Russias single natural gas exporter (according to the Federal Law on Natural Gas Exports adopted in July 2006), Gazprom alone utilizes the existing natural gas pipelines in order to supply Europe (see also Appendix, Existing Natural Gas Pipelines). Meanwhile a series of recent and past events mainly suggesting disputes with Ukraine and Belarus (Bruce, 2005; Stern, 2006) have questioned the security of supply towards Europe, this revealing the potential gaming behavior of the Russians, either to satisfy political purposes or simply take advantage of the energy card in terms of increased pricing. Similar to the 1973 energy crisis and the recent oil price major increases, a scenario concerned with the raise of European natural gas supplies price by Gazprom is to be examined. The scenario supports that unless the desire of Gazprom for a 200% increase of natural gas prices is satisfied, supply towards Europe will be stopped. Question 6 Given the threat of a 200% price increase of natural gas heading towards European countries, an effort is presently carried out in order to investigate the measured responses of both an energy supplier and an energy user being involved in the potential crisis occurrence. Because of the particular features attributed to the subject under investigation, several cases of different energy suppliers and users may be examined. A macroscopic approach may consider two major sides, i.e. the European countries and Gazprom (Russia). However, a closer look focusing on country level and considering organizations as well is thought to be essential in order to better evaluate the situation. As already seen in the previous question concerned with the nuclear power evolution, not all countries responded in the same way to the Chernobyl crisis (NEA, 2007). Working on a country level, energy users will derive from the main Gazprom customers in both Western-Central Europe and the Commonwealth of Indepen dent States (CIS)-Baltic countries (see also Table 6.I). On the other hand, the major energy supplier shall refer to either Gazprom or another natural gas supplier. The alternative of considering different energy sources suppliers will be also outlined. Furthermore, both conservative and more extreme solutions responding to the problem will be considered. Table 6.I: Key s o